Capital Market Outlook

Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

This bi-annual outlook survey is designed to give a view across our investment teams. The expectations for 2026 are based on survey results from investment professionals across all asset classes. We also provide our predictions on inflation, recession, asset class performance and more.

History shows staying invested can pay off.

Are current US market dynamics “too hot, too cold or just right?” What are the impacts of rising interest rates? What is the case for diversification? Our economists discuss these questions in our latest Macro Perspectives.

Arguably, humanity’s greatest current challenge is the need to shift to low and net-zero carbon in a little less than 30 years. These challenges create investment opportunities as investors have a critical role given the capital required to fund this transition. Our specialist investment managers explore energy transition and the new technologies and infrastructures required.

Energy transition presents investors with many opportunities and challenges. It’s not just about cutting emissions; it is about decarbonizing entire sectors and overhauling the entire global economy. How do we do it and what role do investors play? We explore these questions and more.

As investors search for alpha, Chief Market Strategist, Stephen Dover, explores the vast universe of potential investment themes at the intersection of the energy-food-water nexus by drilling in on three possible opportunities that may emerge in the medium- to long-run.

Many government policies—both carrots and sticks—are driving the global transition to greener energy systems. In this piece, we compare regulatory sticks, like carbon pricing, with carrots like feed-in tariffs that subsidized solar renewables. We also discuss the role the quickly developing global industrial policy race is playing in catalyzing investments.

The US high-yield (HY) bond market was a key enabler of the shale oil and gas boom, with far-reaching implications ranging from geopolitics to US industrial competitiveness. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income explores whether the high-yield bond market will fund a boom in energy transition.

One person’s trash is another person’s jet fuel? Franklin Mutual Series explores investment opportunities that may materialize as air carriers and airplane manufactures move to make high-blend sustainable aviation fuel—or SAF—a reality. Rapidly developing fuel technologies may be the bridge to decarbonizing the aviation industry.

The steel industry is one of the largest contributors to global carbon emissions. Is green steel the solution? Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explores green steel from zero-emissions hydrogen, breaking down costs and technologies in each step of the production process.

Oil sands, more than other fossil fuel producers, seemingly face an uphill battle for investment dollars from sustainability-themed portfolios. Franklin Bissett Investment Management explores Canadian oil sands producers’ foundation investment in carbon capture technology as they attempt to reduce carbon emissions.

Franklin Equity Group discusses opportunity in natural gas production, infrastructure and transportation as global stakeholders partner to meet consumer demand while working toward societies’ climate change and energy transition goals.

Energy transition will be a key investment theme in the coming decades because of its integral role in the global economy. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, synthesizes our specialist investment manager’s views for investors navigating the challenges and investment opportunities.

Our economists discuss what’s in store for investors in the second half of 2023 in our latest Macro Perspectives. Although inflation will continue to be an issue for the next 6–12 months and the global economic recovery is uneven, we believe there are opportunities ahead.