Consider This: Hungary—The most meaningful election of 2026 so far

On Sunday 12 April, around 5.9 million Hungarians voted in 106 constituencies. The turnout was over 77%.¹ We reflect on the results and consider the implications for investors.

Why is this election important?

Even though Hungary is a small economy of 10 million people in the middle of Europe, this election is nonetheless hugely important. The wider impact is being felt in Russia, in the United States and in European capitals.

There is no doubt that this is a big setback for Moscow, which invested heavily in influence campaigns to keep Viktor Orbán in power. Hungary was an important lever for Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a member of the European Union (EU) and NATO member state with a pro-Moscow, pro-Russia, pro-Putin leader who opposed further sanctions against Russia, was anti-Ukraine, and who appears to have been a source of intelligence on EU policies. In short, Orbán was a lever to destabilise the EU from within. Moscow will likely try to use Hungary’s energy dependence on Russian oil and gas to influence the new government, but it may not work.

The United States (or at least the Trump administration) also invested a lot of effort in supporting Viktor Orbán. This is partly because Orbán was a shining example for “MAGA” Republicans of their aspirations for Europe and their own country. US Vice President JD Vance campaigned for him, although it is not immediately obvious how this action could have been in the interests of the United States.

Hungarian elections have not historically driven perceptions of the EU, regardless of outcome. But on this occasion, the inescapable conclusion is that the small but awkward member of the EU club has finally chosen to recommit to the project, making Europe more united, stronger and more decisive on the world stage. At the same time, it could mark the peak of the right-wing populist parties in European politics, although it feels too soon to be sure.

What were the priority issues?

Economic stagnation was the leading issue for voters in 2026, along with falling living standards, blatant corruption, nepotism and increasing concentration of power. Hungary has slipped down the scales during Orbán’s premiership, falling behind all of Poland, Czechia and Romania on affordability and standards of living measures.²

Pre-election polling³ had shown respondents desire to remain inside the EU (77%), naming the economy, inflation and cost of living (40%), and closer alignment with the EU (46%) as the most important issues.

For investors, the top issues have been anaemic economic growth, weak productivity, and Hungary’s vulnerability to potential policy shifts that resulted in worsening relations with the EU, which led to currency volatility.

What were the results?

Péter Magyar’s Tisza party won the elections, securing a supermajority (69%), while Orbán’s Fidesz lost 58% of its seats. The Hungarian forint rose by over 2% as the markets look forward to better economic performance for Hungary as the alignment with the EU improves, and funds are disbursed. Voter turnout was over 78%, the highest ever since the fall of Communism.

Interestingly, across age groups and geographies there was a generalised shift away from Orbán personally and his Fidesz party, although it seems the young and those who didn’t vote last time were key in swinging the result. However, the two areas of the country with the highest investment from multinationals remained faithful and remained with Fidesz.

What will the new government look like?

The next government will be a Tisza administration. The overwhelming two-thirds majority means that government formation can be quick and if Péter Magyar’s party is well organised, they can roll back the constitutional changes Orbán implemented in the last 16 years, including influence over the judiciary, the forces of law and order, educational and cultural institutions, the press, and a state capture system similar in reach to the Zuma presidency of South Africa.

The supermajority enables Magyar to deliver on all his campaign promises, including systemic institutional changes to unlock all available EU funding.

What is the economic context?

Hungary is a lower-middle-tier economy in the EU, with a strategic position in EU supply chains, thanks to German industrial investment.

Since it joined the EU, the country has received the equivalent of 2% per annum⁴ in net inflows of development funds from Brussels, one of the highest amounts per citizen in the EU.⁵ This largesse rebuilt infrastructure and contributed to a period of significant foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing, especially in the automotive sector and the electric-vehicle supply chain from Germany and South Korea. As the economic uplift faded, Orbán courted Beijing and achieved some success with FDI from Chinese electric-vehicle battery companies.

However, economic growth has stagnated over the last few years; Hungary’s productivity is lower than its peers, the country did not invest in building a knowledge economy, and the continuing stream of corruption scandals has sapped consumer confidence.

What are the implications for markets?

Policy proposals presented during Magyar’s campaign centred on improving relations with the EU, becoming a strong European and NATO ally and joining the EU’s public prosecutor’s office, the body which investigates transnational and complex financial crimes. He also called for all political appointees of Fidesz to step down or be replaced and committed to orthodox economic policy direction. All are initiatives that capital markets would like. Investors will also be looking at the likelihood of disbursement of frozen EU funds.

On that issue, the EU has issued a 27-point list of conditions it expects to see swift action on, especially given Magyar’s supermajority. These include anti-corruption checks and a rollback of Orbán’s policies that are in breach of the EU’s rules. There are nearly €35 billion in funds frozen because of a variety of disputes and rule-breaking by Hungary’s previous government. €18 billion of this amount is from the EU budget and is immobilised due to rule-of-law violations, increased corruption risks and the undermining of judicial independence. More than €17 billion in cheap defence loans have also been delayed.

There is a historic shift underway in Hungary, with a window of opportunity that could be transformative for Hungarians and reinforcing for Europe as a whole.